Northern Ireland Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook for 2025

Northern Ireland is in an exciting place right now. However, stability at the top in the form of a functional Executive is non-negotiable if we want to capture the opportunities in front of us. If we achieve that stability – and I’m an optimist, so I believe we will – then I hope that it can unlock three things in 2025.

First, the dual market access of the Windsor Framework could be a powerful growth driver. Our economy relies heavily on local, family-run, small and medium sized enterprises. While we may have fewer glamorous mega-corporations, the agility and adaptability of smaller companies to innovate and pivot to new markets and opportunities has the potential to be a real asset. There will no doubt be challenges, but smooth seas do not make skilful sailors and so the resilience that local businesses and the community have shown over the last four to five years will be a strength in the years to come.

Second, Economy Minister Conor Murphy recently launched a 10-year strategic plan for tourism and I hope it can build on an increasingly important sector. Having a country people want to come to and spend their money in is great for the economy. Our culture, natural attractions and growth of the entertainment sector have put us in a fantastic position, but I hope it is one we build on.

Finally, in 2025, I hope we continue to invest in our infrastructure to support even more activity. There’s no point in wishing for a bigger, better, richer economy if we don’t have the infrastructure to support it. It is pleasing to see the number of projects going up around the country, such as the A6 upgrades, new Grand Central Station, and the Ulster University city campus. These investments are challenging because they are expensive, take time and the payback period is long. There’s a saying in the investment world that we ‘sit in the shade today, because someone planted a tree long ago’ and so with a bit of long termism we can set the conditions for success for the whole economy, rather than be forced to chase our tails down the line. 

There’s no denying that there are headwinds – not least the impact of the recent budget. Changes in National insurance and the Minimum Wage, will likely stifle growth in the short term, and changes in the inheritance tax landscape surrounding pensions, businesses and agricultural land will mean financial plans will need to be revisited.

Covid and then the two-year Stormont hiatus means we’ll be in catch-up mode for a while longer, but I look forward to seeing the foundations for a vibrant, prosperous, and importantly growing economy long into the future.